With the 2024 U.S. presidential election just around the corner, new forecasts suggest that the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could be one of the closest in American history. A recent analysis conducted using artificial intelligence (AI) forecasts a narrow win for Harris, who is projected to secure 276 Electoral College votes against Trump’s 262.
The analysis, commissioned by British betting firm Bonus Code Bets and powered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, examined each state individually to predict the election’s outcome based on polling data, demographics, and historical voting patterns. This AI-backed projection has stirred conversations around the role of technology in political forecasting, as well as the potential impact of critical swing states in determining the next U.S. president.
AI and Election Predictions: How ChatGPT Forecasts a Harris Victory
Using OpenAI’s language model, ChatGPT, Bonus Code Bets tasked the AI with analyzing publicly available polling data, demographic trends, and historical election results for each state. The AI was asked to “predict how each state will vote in the 2024 presidential election” by taking into account the political landscape of 2024, including state-specific issues, campaign developments, and recent events.
According to the AI model, Harris is poised to win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, but will narrowly lose in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — states that are traditionally considered battlegrounds.
With a 14-vote lead in the Electoral College, this model forecasts a narrow path to victory for Harris. If realized, it would mark one of the slimmest Electoral College margins in U.S. history, trailing only Rutherford B. Hayes’ one-vote win in 1876 and George W. Bush’s five-vote win in 2000. The slim margin reflects how divided the U.S. electorate remains, as well as the polarized political climate that defines the 2024 election season.
Polling Data and FiveThirtyEight’s Analysis: A Different Perspective?
The AI-powered projection aligns with some recent polling data, though it is not without its own challenges. Recent polling from election analysis platform FiveThirtyEight places Harris ahead of Trump by 1.4 percentage points in the popular vote, with Harris garnering 48.1% to Trump’s 46.7%.
However, due to the nature of the U.S. Electoral College system, a popular vote lead doesn’t always equate to an electoral victory, as was evident in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency to Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Trump a slight edge with a 52% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris is given a 48% chance.
This difference highlights the inherent uncertainties in forecasting elections. With each model relying on different methodologies, from AI analysis to traditional polling aggregations, the outcome remains uncertain.
As a spokesperson for Bonus Code Bets put it, “For years, opinion polls have been used to indicate the outcome of elections, but new technology provides new ways for results to be predicted. Having such a powerful AI tool look at the entirety of the campaign and still predicting that Kamala Harris will win by a single state shows just how close this election will be.”
The Importance of Major Cities: The Key to Harris’ Success?
The AI model’s analysis emphasizes the significance of urban centers in Harris’ projected victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Michigan, while Trump is expected to maintain control over the state’s rural areas, Harris is projected to carry the state by securing votes from Democratic-leaning urban centers like Detroit and Ann Arbor.
